What 2026 Austin Texas Real Estate Buyers and Sellers Need to Know
January 2026 Austin Real Estate Market Update
Clarity in a Confusing Market
Each month, I step back and look at two things side by side:
What’s happening in the broader economy
What the data is actually showing us here in Austin
My goal is simple—to help you understand what matters, what doesn’t, and how it applies to your real estate decisions.
Right now, we’re in a market that feels confusing. The headlines are mixed, people feel uncertain, and yet opportunity is quietly building for those who understand the dynamics.
Let’s break it down.
The Big Picture: Why Things Feel “Off”
One of the most important trends right now isn’t real estate—it’s where household wealth is concentrated.
Over the last several years, the stock market has risen sharply and quickly. As a result, American households are more exposed to equities than they’ve been in a long time. Real estate, as a percentage of total net worth, has actually fallen below stocks.
Why does that matter?
Because when markets rise quickly, wealth becomes unevenly distributed. Some households benefit significantly, while many others don’t. That’s created what economists call a K-shaped economy:
One group is doing very well
Another group is feeling stretched, cautious, and uncertain
This explains something important:
Economic data can look “okay” while people still feel uneasy.
GDP growth remains around 2%, which is exactly where the Federal Reserve wants it. Inflation has come down dramatically from its 2023 highs and is now in the mid-2% range. On paper, the economy is stable.
But affordability still feels tight. Everyday goods are more expensive than people remember. That disconnect between data and lived experience is a big reason consumer sentiment has remained low.
And consumer sentiment matters a lot for real estate.
What the Austin Market Is Actually Doing Today
When we look at December’s numbers and current activity, a few things stand out:
Sales volume remains sluggish
Days on market continue to rise
Negotiation is now the norm
In fact, in Central Austin:
Homes are selling at roughly 10% below original list price on average
More than half of sold homes required at least one price reduction
Active listings with price drops now make up a large portion of the market
This tells us something important:
Buyers have leverage—but only when homes are priced correctly.
Well-priced, well-presented homes still sell. Overpriced homes sit.
What This Means If You’re a Seller
If you’re considering selling in 2026, the strategy matters more than ever.
Today’s successful sellers are doing three things:
Pricing realistically from day one
Making their home stand out visually and condition-wise
Entering the market prepared to negotiate
This is no longer a “test the market” environment. Buyers are patient, informed, and value-driven.
The good news?
Sellers who understand the market—and price accordingly—are getting deals done.
What This Means If You’re a Buyer
For buyers, this is the most negotiable market we’ve seen in years.
Beyond price, we’re seeing opportunities for:
Seller concessions
Rate buy-downs
Loan assumptions
Seller financing structures
These creative solutions can significantly improve affordability and monthly payments.
My advice to buyers right now:
Be patient—but decisive
Watch for well-priced homes
Be ready to move when value shows up
Waiting forever can cost you an opportunity. Acting blindly can cost you money. The right approach sits in the middle.
A Simple Way to Think About 2026
We are becoming more affordable—but we’re not fully balanced yet.
Prices are adjusting
Rates are lower
Wages are growing modestly
Buyer confidence has not fully returned
At some point, pent-up demand will come back. It always does. The question isn’t if—it’s when.
Those who understand the market before that shift happens tend to benefit the most.
Final Thoughts & How We Can Help
Whether you’re thinking about:
Selling in 2026
Buying your first home
Moving up or downsizing
Or simply trying to decide whether to rent or buy
The most valuable step is clarity around your specific situation.
If you’d like to talk through your options—without pressure and without assumptions—we’re always happy to help.
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God Bless!
~ Schuyler Williamson